Updates

In 1995, I interviewed for a job with the California State Senate’s Democratic Caucus. After the 1994 mid-term elections the California State Senate was the only state legislative body controlled by the Democratic Party west of the Mississippi River.

Many pundits and analysts are saying 2010 will be like 1994 or like 2006 what would be called a wave election. After living through a huge surge election like 1994, I don’t think they are correct for three reasons:

• Geographic and ideological isolation of the Republican Party
• Shifting demographics
• General disapproval of both parties

Over the past decade the Republican Party has become the party of the South. The push for ideological purity, the attacks on “RINOs”, has driven many socially progressive but financially conservative voters and candidates from the party. While a strong focus on issues like a woman’s right to chose, LGBT rights and immigration have energize a group of voters is has isolated the party from younger voters and minority voters.

Which brings us to the second reason why 2010 won’t look like 1994: shifting demographics. The anti-immigration campaigns of Pete Wilson and the Republican Party alienated Hispanic voters in California for at least one generation and the rhetoric used by many in the Republican Party is likely to continue this alienation for another generation. This trend is not isolated to just California or event the west.

Places that Republicans must win to take back 40 seats are not the same as 1994 and the messages they have used so far will not move young voters or minority voters.

According to the National Journal:

Still, it is worth recalling that the number of such heavily white districts has plummeted from 245 in 1993 to 145 now. That trajectory suggests the limits of a GOP revival built around maximizing its control over those places. Many analysts in both parties agree that the proliferating number of diverse districts will disadvantage Republicans unless they improve their performance among nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics.

Voters are angry with both parties and all incumbents. They are mad at Republicans for driving our country in the worse economic recession since the Great Depression, two wars and massive debt. And voters are angry with Democrats for not fixing the situation.

Races in 2010 will break on a variety of issues and factors, such as; the popularity of individual members of Congress; if the economy and unemployment are improving and the effectiveness of individual campaigns.