The Oregon voter file has just been released. Of the 46,710 new registrants since the election, 17,449 have registered Democrat, 10,647 have registered Republican and the remaining 18,614 have registered non-affiliated.

It has been nearly impossible not to watch and follow Governor Mark Sanford’s on-going sex scandal. The coverage led me to think about the difference between his scandal and the recent scandals faced by other politicians.

While the specifics in each individual case are different the one thing that stands out to me is Governor Sanford keeps talking. In most of the other recent cases the politicians did one press conference, took no questions and got back to work. Some have had to resign but most have weathered their crisis.

One of the most difficult but important lessons one can learn in dealing with the media is when to stop.

A recent San Francisco Examiner editorial talks about how independent expenditures have grown out of control in San Francisco.

“Our latest local example of this standoff is an “independent expenditure” campaign-contribution loophole that has more than quintupled its money flow during the past six years.”

Why is this an issue? Because independent expenditure (IE) committees cannot be held accountable by voters for their assertions. An independent expenditure committee can say nearly anything and voters have no recourse, while a candidate can be held accountable for the actions of their campaign.

Reducing or eliminating independent expenditure committees can be accomplished by eliminating campaign contribution limits. IE committees exist to allow groups to evade contribution limits. The best way to eliminate these committees is not more regulations, with the current standards set by the Supreme Court a loophole will always be found, but to eliminate the reason they exist.

This is a radical suggestion but couple it with 24hour disclosure for any contribution of more than $100 and you will have a system that is more transparent and has less potential for corruption than the current system.

Money is part of politics; the best way to regulate campaign contributions is through disclosure, creating artificial limits creates unexpected consequences like the rise of the independent expenditure system.

I have not posted here in almost a month. While we have been busy, a big part of the reason for my lack of posting is Facebook. Facebook has become a bit of a distraction from my normal internet activity. So if you want to see what we are up to you might want to “friend” us on Facebook. Or you can follow us on Twitter, @JasRoss, but I don’t update all that frequently.

With Mayor Gavin Newsom’s announcement that he is officially entering the race for Governor I received several calls about my thoughts on why my former client was getting into the race now and how it might effect his governing of San Francisco.

Here is a San Francisco Examiner story about the timing of the announcement. And here is the San Francisco Chronicle story about how Mayor Newsom’s entry into the campaign may effect San Francisco.

The Washington DC press is noticing that California is changing. The Hill reports that:

The earliest House battleground state of the 2010 election is … California?

The notoriously gerrymandered state is shaping up to be pivotal in the battle for the House, with Democrats lining up targets they didn’t even know they had five months ago. It’s also one of the few places where candidates are already jumping into the races, with 19 months until Election Day.

And Politico points out regarding the California 10th Congressional District:

Democrats say Republicans would be kidding themselves if they thought the Tauscher seat were winnable.

Why is California so bleak for Republicans? Because of voter registration and demographic shifts. For the past 20 years Republican candidates have marginalized California’s largest ethnic community, Hispanics. Pushing this community to Democratic Party. Now this Republican strategy is beginning to backfire.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen recently released voter registration statistics for California and they paint a bleak picture for Republicans. These numbers show no Republican can be considered safe in California in 2010.

Nate Silver recently wrote that Dianne Feinstein is positioning herself for a run for Governor of California. Now without a doubt she would be a formidable candidate(PDF).

But I think before you jump on the Dianne Feinstein for Governor bandwagon you might want to read this post by Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine. Now these are not just any bloggers, Jerry Roberts wrote the book on Senator Feinstein and Trounstine covered her for more than 30 years. If they say she is not going to run, other than a declaration from the Senator, that is about as good as it gets.

One of the issues Democrats who want to retake the California Governor’s Office back in 2010 need to deal with is how to take on a potential billionaire who could spend more than $100 million in a general election. One way is to put forward our most popular statewide leader but it does not appear she will run. So we need to start working now to elect a Democrat.

Chris Cillizza who writes the Fix politics blog at the Washington Post has his list of the top Republicans to watch out today. It really should be called southern politicians to watch. Only four of the eleven people listed are from a non-southern State. And Michael Steele from Maryland is from a border state and is now a national political figure and does not have a governing role.

Sarah Palin and Jon Huntsman are the only Republicans from west of the Mississippi. California the state that produced two Republican presidents in 20th Century does not have a single person on the list. Not a single representative from the Southwest or Northwest, only one from the Midwest and Northeast.

The Republican Party is no longer a national party. This was demonstrated this past week by the reception President Obama received in the Republican stronghold of Orange County.

Of those responding to Small Business California Survey 84% predict they will be in business three years from now.

San Francisco—Today, Small Business California (SB-Cal) released the results of its 5th Annual survey of businesses in California. Despite the deepening economic crisis, 84% of small business owners believe they will still remain in business three years from today.

“If one word could sum up California’s small business owners it would be resilient”, said Scott Hauge, Small Business California President and Co-Founder. He went on to say “Natural disasters, economic crisis, government regulations and taxes cannot stand in the way of California’s small businesses providing goods and services to their customers.”

While small business owners are confident in their ability to weather the on-going economic crisis, the survey did highlight areas of concern. For the 5th year in a row, health care ranked as the top concern for small business owners. Reflecting the global credit crisis, access to capital increased as a concern by 17% compared to the 2008 survey. However, it is still rated behind health care and education as an issue of concern for small businesses.

“Small businesses are leading the way in their support of energy efficiency programs”, said Hank Ryan, Executive Director of Small Business California, regarding the 58% of respondents stating that energy efficiency is a valid investment for their business.

Hank Ryan went on to point out that the 0% financing proposed by utilities would help 41% of the businesses, but that number ballooned to 64% when the savings from the improvements went to paying off the loan. “Small businesses are committed to energy efficiency, we just need the tools to make the necessary improvements,” said Ryan.

The complete results of the small business survey and results of past surveys can be found on SB-Cal’s website. The survey was done on-line and was in the field from January 22, 2009 to February 26, 2009. 616 small businesses, from every county in the State, responded to the survey. The survey is representative of those responding.

Small Business California represents the interests of small businesses in California. Its Board of Directors are leading advocates for small businesses and represent thousands of small businesses in every part of the state. More information regarding Small Business California can be found at http://smallbusinesscalifornia.org/.

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I am not going to get involved in the rehashing of the campaign against Proposition 8. Matty Matt, has a nice write up in SFist this week that is worth reading and is illuminating. I would like to put some thoughts down on what should come next. This not intended as a complete plan but here are some thoughts and ideas about next steps and the direction that should be taken.

Create a real plan

The resources available, to those who support equal rights, are extraordinary, but they must be used in a concerted and directed manner. While I have seen many tactical ideas for how to move forward, I am still uncertain what the strategic plan is for achieving equal rights. In the presidential election we witnessed first hand the supremacy of Obama’s strategic campaign over the tactical campaigns run by other candidates for president.

Before we discuss tactics, we first must reach broad agreement on the strategy moving forward. And we must acknowledge that:

The campaign is just starting.

We can not underestimate the commitment of our opponents, it took the Catholic Church more than 250 years to accept that the earth revolves around the sun, we are not going to move institutions like this quickly or without great effort. Our opponents will not give up and they will fight equal rights at every opportunity.

We need to focus on individuals.

From Cesar Chavez to Harvey Milk, modern California history is about organizing at the grassroots level to create a movement for change. Meaningful and sustainable change must come from the bottom up, not the top down. If you look at the successful organizing movements in California they have been based in personal connections. We need to tap into those connections and expand them to reach individuals.

There are a variety of tools and techniques for this, including the Internet, social gatherings and other events. No matter the tool the key component is creating a personal connection with individuals.

Build Coalitions, Activate Allies

No one group, in California, can achieve much. Only by building coalitions and activating our allies can we achieve success. Those is favor of equal rights need to build coalitions, as difficult as that maybe, with other groups that can be of help. Then activate those groups.

This takes time, it takes commitment but again it takes the creation of a personal connection between individuals in various groups.

Only with a clear strategic vision can the campaign for equal rights be successful. I believe that any strategy must be based in creating personal connections at the most basic level. Only then will this movement achieve success.